WTO sharply lowers global goods trade growth forecast for 2026

The World Trade Organization released its latest global trade outlook report on the 7th, stating that due to factors such as the sluggish global economic recovery and U.S. tariff policies, the global trade in goods growth forecast for 2026 has been significantly reduced to 0.5%, significantly lower than the 1.8% forecast in August.

Affected by the relationship between trade in goods and production, trade in services will also be indirectly impacted by tariffs. The report predicts that the growth rate of global service exports will drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and will further drop to 4.4% in 2026.

WTO economists emphasized that trade restrictions and policy uncertainty are spreading to more economies and industries, posing major downside risks.

WTO Director-General Iweala said at a press conference that day that despite strong headwinds brought by unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainty, global trade still shows a certain degree of resilience thanks to the stability provided by the multilateral trading system and the appropriate response measures taken by members in response to tariff changes.

In the report, the WTO raised its forecast for global trade in goods growth in 2025 to 2.4% from the 0.9% forecast in August.

The report shows that in the first half of 2025, global trade in goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and global trade in goods in US dollars increased by 6% year-on-year. North America's expansion of imports in advance to avoid high tariffs, improvement of macroeconomic conditions, and surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related goods are the main factors driving growth.

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