OECD raises global economic growth expectations this year

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a medium-term economic outlook report on the 23rd, which is expected to be 3.2% in 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the forecast for June this year; the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the forecast for June.

The report pointed out that in the first half of 2025, global economic growth showed stronger resilience than expected, especially in emerging market economies. The impact of US tariff policy has not been fully released and is gradually spreading to the levels of expenditure options, labor markets and consumer prices. The report believes that the global economic outlook still faces major risks, further rising tariff rates, rising inflation pressures, intensified concerns about fiscal risks, and revaluation of financial market risks may all lower economic growth expectations.

The report predicts that as the pulling effect of strong investment growth in high-tech industries is offset by tariffs and tightening immigration policies, the U.S. economic growth rate will drop from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and further slowed to 1.5% in 2026; in 2025 and 2026, the eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.2% and 1.0%.

The report predicts that the overall inflation rate of the G20 countries will drop from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with the core inflation rate of developed economies this year and next year to 2.6% and 2.5% respectively.

The report recommends that countries should strengthen cooperation in the global trade system and improve transparency and predictability of trade policies while responding to economic security concerns. At the same time, central banks should remain vigilant and respond quickly to changes in the risk balance that affects price stability. Countries should also increase their efforts in structural reform, promote the continuous improvement of living standards, and release the potential dividends brought by new technologies such as artificial intelligence.

The OECD released its economic outlook report in June this year, when it was expected that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the forecast in March this year.