Global steel demand is expected to reach approximately 1.772 billion tons in 2026

The World Steel Association released the latest version (2025-2026) of its short-term steel demand forecast report (SRO) on October 13. The reportIt is expected that global steel demand in 2025 will be the same as in 2024, reaching approximately 1.75 billion tons; in 2026, global steel demand will rebound moderately by 1.3%, reaching 1.772 billion tons.

Chairman of the World Steel Association Market Research Committee and Chief Economist of the Spanish Steel Industry Association (UNESID) Commenting on the results of this forecast, Calcerrada said: "Despite the significant escalation of the global trade war and continued uncertainty, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and achieve moderate growth in 2026. This positive forecast is based on the resilience demonstrated by the global economy, continued strong public infrastructure investment in most of the world's major economies, and expected loosening of financing conditions."

Growth expectations for 2026 are driven by a combination of strong regional trends. We expect the decline in steel demand in China to slow, coupled with strong growth in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Crucially, we also expect a long-awaited recovery in European steel demand.

However, the path forward is not without challenges. First, the global manufacturing industry continues to face two-way squeeze. On the one hand, production costs continue to rise, and on the other hand, consumers' affordability continues to be under pressure. Second, escalating trade tensions have had a direct negative impact on steel demand for economies that rely heavily on exports of steel-intensive products such as machinery and auto parts. Finally, geopolitical uncertainty emerged as a significant headwind, dampening consumer and investor confidence and dampening steel demand in key markets. "

China’s steel demand is expected to continue to decline in 2025, with a decline of approximately 2.0%. This forecast means that the downward trend in demand since 2021, mainly caused by the continued downturn in the housing market, will ease. It is expected that in 2026, as the real estate market bottoms out, the decline is expected to slow further to 1.0%. We believe that China's current steel demand forecast faces downside risks. Tightening global trade conditions pose a significant downside risk, which could lead to a slowdown in steel demand from less manufacturing industries. In addition, fiscal pressures on local governments may limit infrastructure investment, further depressing steel demand.

Steel demand in developing countries outside China is expected to grow steadily, with growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026. The main driver was the strong performance of India and some ASEAN and MENA countries.

It is expected that driven by continued growth in all steel-using industries,India’s steel demand will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026, by up to about 9%. Indian steel demand is expected to increase by 75 million tons in 2026 compared with 2020.

In the past decade starting from the mid-2010s,Steel demand in Africa remains largely stable, hovering around 35 million to 40 million tons. However, the continent will experience significant changes starting in 2023, with clear signs of strong recovery in both the construction industry and steel consumption. Our analysis estimates that steel demand in Africa has grown by an average of 5.5% per year over the past three years, driven by strong growth in the north and east. This new growth momentum will take Africa's steel demand to approximately 41 million tons in 2025, supported by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and governance. For example, most major economies in Africa have achieved steady growth in recent years, with inflation and exchange rate volatility significantly reduced. Not only that, with the support of key reform measures, some African countries are actively promoting ambitious economic diversification agendas. These developments could pave the way for potentially sustainable growth in steel demand on the continent.

expectedSteel demand in Central and South AmericaThis year will see relatively strong growth of 5.5%. This growth expectation is mainly due to two factors: first, a double-digit rebound in Argentina - recovering from a slump of more than 30% in 2024; second, Brazil's solid growth of 5.0%, and the Brazilian government-supported welfare housing plan will continue to boost steel consumption in the construction industry. This expected growth of 5.5% is expected to push total steel demand in the region to approximately 50 million tons. However, it is important to note that this level is 2 million tons lower than steel consumption in 2013. This clearly reflects the deindustrialization trend that has persisted in the region’s economic trajectory since the early 2000s.

Global steel demand in developed countries is expected to drop by 0.5% in 2025, this will be the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2021. However, with steel demand in the European Union and the United States expected to bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth thereafter, steel demand in developed countries is expected to recover in 2026, reaching a growth rate of 1.5%. In contrast, sluggish steel demand in Japan and South Korea is expected to continue until 2026.

Steel demand in the EU+UK region is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The long-awaited pick-up in steel demand in the EU reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defense spending on the continent, as well as improving macroeconomic conditions such as lower inflation, easier credit conditions and higher real household incomes.

Due to production ahead of tariff increases and continued growth in infrastructure spending,U.S. steel demand is expected to rebound by 1.8% in 2025. Steel demand is expected to grow by another 1.8% in 2026, helped by pent-up demand in the residential construction industry and private investment, easing financing conditions and reduced uncertainty. The move will boost multiple industries, potentially leading to further benefits as the Big Better Act stimulus package rolls out.

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