Global manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month in August 2025

According to the release of the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement, the global manufacturing PMI in August 2025 was 49.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, close to the 50% boom and bust line. According to the region, the Asian manufacturing PMI continues to operate above 50%, up from the previous month; the African manufacturing PMI declined slightly from last month, and the index was still above 50%; although the European manufacturing PMI and the American manufacturing PMI are both below 50%, they have risen to varying degrees compared with the previous month.

According to changes in the comprehensive index, the global manufacturing PMI has risen compared with last month, operating below 50% for six consecutive months, and approaching the 50% boom line this month, which means that although the global manufacturing industry has not changed its weak recovery trend, its recovery efforts have increased compared with last month. By region, Asian manufacturing industry maintained moderate growth and continued to stabilize in the expansion range; African manufacturing industry's recovery efforts weakened compared with last month, but it was still expanding range; American and European manufacturing industries are still shrinking, but the recovery efforts have increased to varying degrees compared with last month.

Overall, the manufacturing PMI approaching the boom-bust line means that the global economic recovery is changing in a positive direction, but the overall recovery efforts still need to be improved. The latest WTO report predicts global trade in goods to grow by 0.9% in 2025, up from -0.2% forecast in April, but still below 2.7% before tariff hikes. The current global economic recovery is moving slowly in fluctuations. Trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts are still disturbing the global economy, but countries around the world are seeking new paths of cooperation and exploring the optimization of supply chain and industrial chains. The resilience of global economic recovery is also gradually emerging. Since March this year, although the global manufacturing PMI has not exceeded 50%, it has continued to remain above 49%. Multiple ways of regional collaboration are the main ways for major countries in the world to maintain resilience. Countries around the world should strive to strengthen coordination and cooperation in economic policies, reduce instability in the economic recovery process, and thus consolidate the sustainability of global economic recovery.

The decline in manufacturing in the Americas narrowed, and PMI rose slightly

In August 2025, the PMI of the American manufacturing industry was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the American manufacturing industry remained in the contraction range, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous month, and the recovery of manufacturing industry was better than last month. Data from major countries show that the manufacturing PMI in the United States and Canada both rose to varying degrees compared with the previous month, both below 49%; the manufacturing PMI in Colombia and Mexico rose to more than 50% compared with the previous month, both above 50%; the manufacturing PMI in Brazil decreased compared with the previous month, falling to below 48%. The ISM report shows that in August 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and below 50% for six consecutive months. The sub-index shows that the new order index rose from the previous month to more than 51%; the production index fell below 48% compared with the previous month; the employee index continued to be below 44%, and was below 50% for seven consecutive months; the purchase price index was still above 63%.

Data shows that the decline in the US manufacturing industry narrowed compared with last month, demand rebounded, but production declined, enterprise employment levels remained at low levels, and raw material prices continued to be high. The impact of tariff policies on production costs and employment of American companies is still emerging. Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that it is expected that by October this year, the proportion of tariff costs borne by US consumers will reach 67%. The "Values ​​and Labor Movement Survey Report" released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the number of job vacancies in the United States dropped to 7.18 million in July, falling to the lowest level in the past 10 months, and the demand for labor among enterprises is gradually weakening. Consumer confidence in the United States has also declined. Survey data released by the University of Michigan in the United States showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index in August was 58.2, down about 6% from July, the first decline in four months.

European manufacturing industry recovers better, PMI rises near the boom and bust line

In August 2025, the European manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and rose by 8 consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, France, Italy and Spain's manufacturing PMI are above 50%, up to varying degrees from month to month; although Germany's manufacturing PMI is still below 50%, it has risen month to month for three consecutive months, rising to around the 50% boom and bush line; Greece's manufacturing PMI has risen to above 54%. Data changes show that the European manufacturing PMI continues to rise month-on-month, which means that the recovery of European manufacturing continues to improve. Against the backdrop of a slight rebound in European economic activity and relatively stable inflation levels, the probability that the European Central Bank will maintain the current interest rate level remains unchanged. The initial annualized CPI rate in the euro zone in August was 2.1%, slightly higher than the 2% last month. In order to promote economic recovery, major European countries are also increasing investment in infrastructure. Continuing to increase efforts to cultivate domestic demand to alleviate the pressure on overseas demand is one of the important means for European countries to maintain stable and sustainable economic recovery.

Africa's manufacturing industry remains in the expansion range, PMI declines

In August 2025, the PMI of Africa's manufacturing industry was 50.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it was running above 50% for two consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, Nigeria's manufacturing PMI rose month-on-month, rising to more than 54%; South Africa and Egypt's manufacturing PMI decreased to varying degrees compared with last month, with the index below 50%. According to changes in comprehensive data, the growth rate of African manufacturing slowed down compared with last month, but overall it is still in the expansion range and still maintains a relatively good recovery trend. The continuous advancement of the African continent's free trade zone provides a long-term foundation for African countries to resist external shocks, reshape the African trade pattern, and accelerate economic transformation. Africa still has a large room for development. Tariff shocks, debt burdens and political stability risks in some countries are still the main factors plaguing Africa's economic recovery.

Asia's manufacturing industry continues to expand, with PMI rising from last month

In August 2025, the PMI of Asia's manufacturing industry was 50.9%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and was above 50% for four consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, China's manufacturing PMI rose from last month. India's manufacturing PMI is above 59%. Among ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Thailand's manufacturing PMI both increased compared with the previous month, with an index of more than 51%; the manufacturing PMI in the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam were above 50%; the manufacturing PMI in Singapore was at 50%; and the manufacturing PMI in Malaysia was below 50%. The PMI of manufacturing in Japan and South Korea both increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month, both below 50%.

Overall, China's economic foundation continues to consolidate, India's economy maintains rapid growth, and ASEAN's economy also shows signs of improvement. The recovery level of Asia's economic recovery continues to be higher than that of the Americas, Europe and Africa, and is also higher than the overall level of global manufacturing.

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