The impact of the US-Israel-Iraq war on China's seamless pipes
The US-Iraqi-Israel war has spread to the entire Middle East. As the main region for China's seamless pipe exports, the Middle East will undoubtedly have a great impact on China's seamless pipe exports.
Iran is one of the world's major oil producers, with an average daily crude oil production of approximately 3.25 million barrels and an export volume of approximately 1.67 million barrels per day. The war may cause damage to Iran's oilfield facilities, interrupt production, or restrict exports due to sanctions, transportation obstructions, etc., directly reducing global crude oil supply.
There are other Gulf countries such as Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for their crude oil exports. If the strait is blocked or transportation is blocked, the crude oil exports of these countries will drop significantly, and the global crude oil supply gap may expand to millions of barrels per day. This in turn affects the exploitation and transportation of crude oil resources in the Middle East. Seamless pipes are one of the steel products most affected.
In 2025, China's seamless pipe exports to the Middle East will be approximately 2.643 million tons, accounting for 42.02% of China's total seamless pipe exports (6.2828 million tons), making it the largest export region of China's seamless pipes.
The six Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain): 1.653 million tons (accounting for 26.31% of total exports); Iran: 33,040 tons (accounting for only 0.53%); the United Arab Emirates (approximately 680,000 tons, accounting for 10.83%), Kuwait (approximately 400,000 tons), and Saudi Arabia (approximately 250,000 tons).
Iran is one of the world's major oil producers, with an average daily crude oil production of approximately 3.25 million barrels and an export volume of approximately 1.67 million barrels per day. The war may cause damage to Iran's oilfield facilities, interrupt production, or restrict exports due to sanctions, transportation obstructions, etc., directly reducing global crude oil supply.
There are other Gulf countries such as Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for their crude oil exports. If the strait is blocked or transportation is blocked, the crude oil exports of these countries will drop significantly, and the global crude oil supply gap may expand to millions of barrels per day. This in turn affects the exploitation and transportation of crude oil resources in the Middle East. Seamless pipes are one of the steel products most affected.
In 2025, China's seamless pipe exports to the Middle East will be approximately 2.643 million tons, accounting for 42.02% of China's total seamless pipe exports (6.2828 million tons), making it the largest export region of China's seamless pipes.
The six Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain): 1.653 million tons (accounting for 26.31% of total exports); Iran: 33,040 tons (accounting for only 0.53%); the United Arab Emirates (approximately 680,000 tons, accounting for 10.83%), Kuwait (approximately 400,000 tons), and Saudi Arabia (approximately 250,000 tons).
Influencing factors:
1. Logistics and transportation are blocked
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, China's seamless pipe export routes to Persian Gulf countries (such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, etc.) will be directly blocked. These countries are important export markets for China's seamless pipes, accounting for approximately 26.31% of China's total seamless pipe exports. The blockade of the strait will lead to a significant increase in shipping costs, prolonged transportation cycles, and even the failure of some orders to be delivered on time.
Increased cost of alternative routes: If a ship circumvents the Cape of Good Hope, the voyage will increase by 10-15 days, fuel costs, insurance fees, etc. will increase significantly, and the profit margins of seamless pipe export companies may be compressed.
2. Changes in market demand
Fluctuating demand in the Middle East: The war may lead to a slowdown in infrastructure construction in the Middle East, and demand for seamless pipes may decline in the short term. For example, large-scale engineering projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries may be delayed or suspended due to unstable situations, reducing the procurement of seamless pipes.
Global market demand adjustment: If the war lasts for a long time, global economic growth may be suppressed, and the demand for seamless pipes in other regions may also be affected. For example, manufacturing industries in Europe, North America and other regions may reduce production due to rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions, reducing demand for seamless pipes.
3. Rising production costs
Increased energy costs: The war has led to a sharp increase in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other energy sources, and the cost of energy consumption in the production process of seamless pipes has increased. For example, rising electricity and fuel costs in steelmaking, pipe rolling and other processes have pushed up the production costs of seamless pipes.
Unstable supply of raw materials: War may affect the supply of raw materials such as iron ore and coke. Iran is one of the iron ore exporting countries. If its exports are blocked, it may affect the supply and demand balance of the global iron ore market, leading to an increase in raw material prices and further increasing the production costs of seamless pipes.
To sum up, the impact of the US-Israeli war on seamless pipes is mainly transmitted through logistics and transportation, market demand, production costs and other channels. It may have a greater impact on the seamless pipe market in the short term, while the long-term impact depends on the duration of the war and the evolution of the situation.
1. Logistics and transportation are blocked
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, China's seamless pipe export routes to Persian Gulf countries (such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, etc.) will be directly blocked. These countries are important export markets for China's seamless pipes, accounting for approximately 26.31% of China's total seamless pipe exports. The blockade of the strait will lead to a significant increase in shipping costs, prolonged transportation cycles, and even the failure of some orders to be delivered on time.
Increased cost of alternative routes: If a ship circumvents the Cape of Good Hope, the voyage will increase by 10-15 days, fuel costs, insurance fees, etc. will increase significantly, and the profit margins of seamless pipe export companies may be compressed.
2. Changes in market demand
Fluctuating demand in the Middle East: The war may lead to a slowdown in infrastructure construction in the Middle East, and demand for seamless pipes may decline in the short term. For example, large-scale engineering projects in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries may be delayed or suspended due to unstable situations, reducing the procurement of seamless pipes.
Global market demand adjustment: If the war lasts for a long time, global economic growth may be suppressed, and the demand for seamless pipes in other regions may also be affected. For example, manufacturing industries in Europe, North America and other regions may reduce production due to rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions, reducing demand for seamless pipes.
3. Rising production costs
Increased energy costs: The war has led to a sharp increase in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other energy sources, and the cost of energy consumption in the production process of seamless pipes has increased. For example, rising electricity and fuel costs in steelmaking, pipe rolling and other processes have pushed up the production costs of seamless pipes.
Unstable supply of raw materials: War may affect the supply of raw materials such as iron ore and coke. Iran is one of the iron ore exporting countries. If its exports are blocked, it may affect the supply and demand balance of the global iron ore market, leading to an increase in raw material prices and further increasing the production costs of seamless pipes.
To sum up, the impact of the US-Israeli war on seamless pipes is mainly transmitted through logistics and transportation, market demand, production costs and other channels. It may have a greater impact on the seamless pipe market in the short term, while the long-term impact depends on the duration of the war and the evolution of the situation.
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