The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the global manufacturing sector in April was 49.1%, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the global manufacturing sector in April 2025 was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from March. It has declined month-on-month for two consecutive months and has been below 50% for two consecutive months.

The global manufacturing sector remains weak, reflecting the pressure on the global economy. The latest "World Economic Outlook" report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the January forecast this year.

Regionally, in April, the PMI of the Asian manufacturing sector was 50%, down 1.3 percentage points from March; the African manufacturing sector has returned to the contraction range.

The growth rate of the Asian manufacturing sector has slowed compared with March and dropped to the boom-or-bust line level. Faced with the uncertainty of the external environment, Asian developing countries should make full use of the advantages of the domestic market demand and continue to firmly promote industrial upgrading, economic structure optimization and technological innovation to resist the negative impacts brought by the uncertainty of the external environment. At the same time, Asian countries should continue to promote the integrated development of the Asian economy. By strengthening cooperation, they can deepen the integrated development of industrial chains and supply chains, enhance the resilience of regional development in Asia, and thus cope with the shocks of global uncertain risks.

The stability of the African manufacturing sector remains weak, and the fluctuations are relatively obvious. The uncertainty of the external environment will have a negative impact on the upgrading of African industrial and supply chains. At the same time, it also forces African countries to actively promote intra-African trade and investment through the "African Continental Free Trade Agreement" to enhance Africa's risk resistance in global trade frictions. In addition, strengthening the diversified layout of the foreign trade pattern has also become the primary option for African countries to avoid external risks.

The manufacturing sectors in Europe and the Americas still show a contractionary trend. In April, the PMI of the European manufacturing sector was 48.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from March, slightly above 48% for two consecutive months; the PMI of the American manufacturing sector was 48.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from March, below 49% for two consecutive months and declining month-on-month for three consecutive months, indicating that the American manufacturing sector continues to be in the contraction range.

The European manufacturing sector is still in a contractionary state at present. The European Central Bank also believes that the downside risks to the euro area economy have increased significantly. Recent data released by the European Union shows that core inflation data has risen, bringing new uncertainties to the European Central Bank's subsequent monetary policy decisions.

Goldman Sachs and UBS and other institutions all believe that the risk of a recession in the United States in 2025 has increased. At the same time, the market's concerns about the inflationary pressures brought by the uncertainty of the external environment have also increased.

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