Analysis of China's Seamless Steel Pipe Exports under US Tariffs

In 2024, China exported 5.6968 million tons of seamless pipes, of which 106,500 tons were exported to the United States, accounting for 1.87%. Judging from the data of the past two years, in 2023, China exported 5.6645 million tons of seamless pipes, of which 123,400 tons were exported to the United States, accounting for 2.1% of the total export volume that year. Both the export volume and the proportion in 2024 have decreased. However, China has been actively constructing a diversified export pattern and expanding the export trade market. Some products are transshipped to the United States via third-party countries. With the implementation of the US policy of covering tariffs across the board, this indirect trade route will face stricter rule reviews and cost pressures. It is expected that the sustainability of the transshipment trade model will be significantly challenged, and the export volume of seamless pipes will decline. In addition, the drop in crude oil prices has directly led to a sharp decline in the demand for oil well pipes, and the market demand for seamless pipes will also decrease accordingly.

In 2024, China's steel exports to Vietnam continued to maintain a leading position. Vietnam's total imports of steel from China reached 12.6 million tons. Among them, Vietnam imported 175,800 tons of seamless pipes from China in 2024, accounting for 1.41% of the total. China's direct steel exports to the United States are relatively small, with only 500,000 tons exported to the United States in the whole year of 2024. However, China has a relatively large amount of transshipped exports through Southeast Asia. Vietnam is also one of the largest steel suppliers to the United States. In 2024, Vietnam also increased its imports of steel products from China. The incremental part can be regarded as the volume of transshipment trade. However, the "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration in April 2025 has made Southeast Asia a frontline in the Sino-US trade game. With the implementation of the US tariff policy against China, even if Chinese seamless pipes enter the United States through transshipment trade, they will have to pay higher tariffs. In other industries in Vietnam, for example, 80% of the fabric for the clothing industry and 70% of the components for the electronics industry rely on imports from China. This "Chinese raw materials + Vietnamese assembly + US sales" triangular model allows the United States to put Vietnam in a dilemma by simply waving the tariff stick.

As can be seen from the above figure, the export situation of seamless pipes in China from 2015 to 2024 is as follows. From 2015 to 2017, the export volume of seamless pipes in China generally showed a downward trend. In 2015, the export volume of seamless steel pipes was 4.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%. From 2018 to 2019, the export volume began to rebound. In 2018, the export volume of seamless steel pipes in China was 4.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%; in 2019, the export volume was 4.3504 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%. Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the global economy was hit, and the export of seamless pipes in China showed a sharp downward trend. From 2021 to 2022, the export of seamless pipes in China witnessed rapid growth. The export volume increased in 2021. In 2022, the cumulative export volume of seamless steel pipes for the whole year reached 4.9 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with 2021, a year-on-year increase of 44.28%, and the export volume hit a new high in nearly 8 years. In 2023, the total export volume of seamless pipes in China reached 5.66 million tons, and in 2024, the total export volume was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 0.57% compared with 2023. From 2020 to 2024, the export volume of seamless pipes increased year by year. Behind this growth trend, the price competitiveness index and quality recognition index of Chinese seamless pipes in the international market have both improved. At the same time, China has actively explored emerging markets and increased market development efforts in countries and regions along the Belt and Road.

III. Conclusion

China exports relatively few steel products directly to the United States. The total export volume to the United States in 2024 was only 500,000 tons. However, China has a relatively large amount of transshipped exports through Southeast Asia. For example, the growth rate of steel exports from Vietnam to the United States is relatively fast. The increase in tariffs will suppress the entry of steel products into the US market. But the overall impact is limited. In the short term, US steel mills will be affected by reduced competition and rising prices, and the capacity utilization rate will increase. During Trump's first term, tariffs of 25% were imposed on steel and 10% on aluminum. However, tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Brazil were subsequently waived. After the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs in the first term, the capacity utilization rate of US steel mills once rose to over 80%. However, with the fierce global competition in steel products, the capacity utilization rate of US steel mills has gradually declined. This has a greater impact on Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea. These countries will have to seek price cuts or look for other trading buyers, putting downward pressure on global steel prices.

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